基于系统云灰色SCGM(1,1)c模型的铁路货运量预测

摘要

从铁路货运量的预测问题出发,试图找到稳定有效的方法对铁路货运量进行预测.通过对历年铁路货运量的定性分析,合理地选择预测数据数列,以充分体现铁路货运量的变化趋势.尝试采用单因子系统云灰色SCGM(1,1)c模型对铁路货运量进行了动态预测.结果表明:单因子系统云灰色SCGM(1,1)c模型在对铁路货运量的拟合和预测均有较好的效果.拟合精度和预测精度分别达到了98.83%和98.04%,可以有效地进行铁路货运量的短期预测.%The prediction of railway freight volume is focused on and tried to find an effective method to forecast the railway freight volume.Data series of railway freight volume over the years was analyzed quantitatively and a modeling time series was determined which revealed the trend of railway freight volumes.Then a single-factor system cloud grey SCGM ( 1,1 ) c model was presented to forecast railway freight volume.The results conform that SCGM( 1,1 )c model performs well in both fitting and prediction for railway freight volume, the fitting and prediction accuracy are 98.83％ and 98.04％ respectively.It is feasible for short-term forecast of railway freight volume.