在非稳定流模型(1995～2014年)基础上设计5个情景:现状(A)、回灌(B)、沉降中心停采(C)、沉降中心部分减采(D)及不同沉降中心不同减采比例(E),对北京平原2015～2030年地下水可持续利用进行分析.结果表明:①现状条件下,由于连续干旱及应急水源地的投入运行,北京平原地下水储存量被持续大量消耗,地下水位快速下降;②预测期内平均来说, A和B分别消耗1.16 ×108、0.28 ×108m3/a 的地下水储存量,而C、D、E 储存量分别恢复3.52 ×108、1.18 ×108、2.83 × 108m3/a;③设计合理情景F:5区(八仙庄)、6区(天竺)和7区(王四营)的工业和城市生活用水分别减采0.51×108、0.12× 108、1.76×108m3,总开采量19.28×108m3,F是北京平原未来应采取的最优开采情景.%In order to study the groundwater sustainable exploitation trend of Beijing plain, the transient ground-water flow model (1995～2014) was set up for Beijing plain.A total of five exploitation scenarios have been de-signed based on this model: business as usual scenario (A), scenario with artificial recharge ( B), scenario with pumping cessation in subsidence centers ( C) , scenario with the same pumping reduction percentage in subsidence centers ( D), and scenario with different pumping reduction percentages in subsidence centers(E) .The groundwa-ter utilization of Beijing plain from 2015 to 2030 was analyzed through the numerical simulation.The results show that:①under current condition, due to the continuous drought in recent years and emergency water source in oper-ation, the groundwater storage of Beijing plain was continually consumed to a large degree, resulting in the ground-water table falling fast;②on average for the prediction period, scenarios A and B will deplete 116×106, 28×106 m3groundwater storage, respectively, while scenarios C, D and E will recover 352×106, 118×106, 283×106m3 groundwater storage, respectively, indicating scenarios C and E are better than scenarios A, B and D;③a rational exploitation scenario F is designed through the analysis of the above scenarios: pumping reduction amounts in the subsidence centers are 51×106m3/a (100% reduction), 12×106m3/a (20% reduction) and 176×106m3/a (50%reduced) in zones 5～7, respectively.The total pumping reduction amount is 239×106m3/a and the total pumping amount is 1 928×106m3/a.Scenario F is the reasonable pumping scenario for the Beijing plain in the fu-ture.
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