基于CALPUFF模型,以2007年为基准年,根据成渝经济区基准年火电SO2排放量、2008-2009年国家核定的火电SO2减排量(20.9×104 t)、“十二五”年地方计划火电SO2减排量(18.5 ×104 t)以及地方愿景下的“十二五”期间新增火电SO2排放量,设计3种不同排放情景,并且对不同情景下的ρ(SO2)分布特征进行了模拟.结果表明:2008年和2009年成渝经济区的火电SO2减排使成渝经济区的ρ( SO2)年均值比2007年平均降低了18.9％；“十二五”新增火电装机将会使成渝经济区的ρ(SO2)年均值比2007年平均升高20.7％.虽然通过工程减排及“上大压小”的方式减缓了新增火电机组带来的影响,但从空间分布来看,ρ(SO2)增加的局部地区与酸雨严重的地区高度重合,导致该区域酸雨污染风险依然存在.%Using 2007 as the base year,the SO2 concentration characteristics under different scenarios were simulated using the CALPUFF Model. Emissions modeled were SO2 emissions of coal-fired power plants in the Chengdu-Chongqing economic zone in 2007,national planned SO2 emission reductions (20. 9×104 t) from power plants from 2008-2009 ,local plans for SO2 emission reductions (18. 5×104 t) from power plants during the 12th Five-Year Plan,and SO2 emission additions from newly-established power plants during the 12th Five-Year Plan. The results show that the reduction of SO2 emissions from power plants during 2008-2009 caused a remarkable decrease (18. 9% ) in the ambient SO2 level in the Chengdu-Chongqing economic zone. However,new coal-fired power plants in the period of 2011-2015 will lead to a 20. 7% increase in the annual average concentration of SO2. Although the impacts of newly-established coal-fired,power plants can be reduced through emission reduction projects and structural adjustment,the risk of regional acid rain pollution will still exist. From the viewpoint of the spatial distribution of SO2 concentration,some of the areas with SO2 emissions increases are also the areas with serious acid rain.
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