重点区域大气污染防治行动计划实施的社会经济影响对比

摘要

基于2007年中国投入产出表建立了包含产业内部关联波及效应和居民消费诱发效应的投入产出宏观闭模型.在此基础上测算大气污染防治行动计划(以下简称“计划”)完全实施所需投资对京津冀、长三角、珠三角三大重点区域GDP、就业的正负效应及重点区域不同行业的影响,并对不同地区社会经济影响结果进行了比较分析.结果表明:在五年期间项目实施将拉动京津冀地区GDP增加35.66 × 108元,增加就业岗位约40 808个;拉动长三角地区GDP增长2782.03×108元,增加就业岗位约238285个;拉动珠三角地区GDP增长852.85×108元,增加就业岗位约74 758个.在短期(2013-2017年)内,长三角地区所获总收益远大于珠三角与京津冀地区.从行业影响看,三大地区实施“计划”后受益的行业主要集中于交通运输设备制造业、通用与专用设备制造业等与“计划”直接关联的行业.京津冀与长三角地区服务业所获得的直接效益远大于珠三角地区,侧面反映出珠三角地区服务业水平要整体高于长三角及京津冀地区;而珠三角和长三角地区因对交通行业投资较大,故交通运输设备制造业所获得的经济效益也要远大于京津冀地区.研究显示,不同地区投资所获的效益受到当地产业结构的影响,在未来产业发展中,京津冀地区应大力发展第三产业,对金属冶炼及压延加工业应多考虑产业结构升级优化;长三角及珠三角地区应鼓励发展新能源汽车、环保装备制造等行业.%Based on a 2007 input-output table,we developed an input-output macro model which determines affiliated ripple effects within the industry and consumer-induced effects.On this basis,we evaluated the positive and negative effects of GDP and employment and the effects of different industries through the implementation of the air pollution prevention and control action plan.Then,we made a comparative analysis of the socio-economic impacts in the three key areas-Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta regions.The results show that the investment stimulates an increase of GDP and employment,which is 3.566 billion Yuan and 40,808,respectively,in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region;85.285 billion Yuan and 74,758 in Pearl River Delta region;and 278.203 billion Yuan and 238,285 in Yangtze River Delta region.The benefits gained in the Yangtze River Delta region are more than in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Pearl River Delta region.With respect to industrial impacts,the industries benefitting are mainly the industries directly related to the action plan,such as transportation equipment manufacturing industry,metal smelting and rolling processing industry and general and special equipment manufacturing.The direct benefit of the service industry in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and the Yangtze River Delta region is higher than in the Pearl River Delta region,which reflects the fact that the level of services in the Pearl River Delta region is higher.Because the investment of traffic industry in Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta region is greater,economic benefits are also larger than Beijing-TianjinHebei region.The results show that the benefits of investment in different regions are affected by the local industrial structure.In the future industrial development,the service industry should be developed vigorously in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,and metal smelting and rolling processing industry should be upgraded,considering industrial structure optimization.New energy automotive industry and environmental protection equipment manufacturing should be encouraged in Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta.