延迟退休年龄的合理性--基于合理退休年龄的判断准则及估算结果比较

摘要

The criteria and evaluation of reasonable retirement age is the theory foundation in the formulation of postponing retirement age policy.According to financial balancing rule,the empirical rule and the computable general equilibrium (GE)model,this paper estimates the reasonable retirement age in China.Three kinds of estimates are slightly different,but all show higher than the current average retirement age,and over time,the retirement age should be risen gradually.In addition,based on the CGE model to estimate the retirement age change paths,the GDP growth rate, consumption levels and social efficiency are higher than those of the situation of maintaining existing retirement age.It further shows that the necessity and rationality of postponing retirement age.%了解合理退休年龄的评判标准和估算方法是政府制定延迟退休年龄政策的理论基础。本文根据财务平衡法则、经验法则以及可计算一般均衡（C GE ）模型分别估算了中国的合理退休年龄。三种估算结果虽略有差异，但均显示高于现行平均退休年龄，且随着时间推移，退休年龄应逐步上升。同时，根据C GE方法估算的退休年龄变化路径，相应的GDP增长率、消费水平、社会总工作效率均要高于维持现有退休年龄不变的情况。这也进一步表明了延迟退休年龄的必要性和合理性。