随着人口的快速增长与经济的快速发展,能源需求量与消费量也持续快速增加.实现能源优化配置是促进节能减排,缓解能源供需矛盾的根本措施.文章基于不确定性优化方法,构建了能源优化配置模型;应用所构建的模型,结合相关数据进行了包含多种资源类型、多重规划期和多重终端需求的案例验证研究;权衡经济目标与环境目标,得到了最低系统成本下的资源供应方案、电力与热力供给方案、扩容方案与污染物控制方案;结合析因分析方法对优化模型结果进行敏感性分析,确定了对研究目标影响最为显著的因子.该模型可为制定优化能源配置的相关政策提供有效的决策支持.%With the rapid growth of the world's population and economic development,the energy demand and consumption is also increasing rapidly. Optimizing the allocation of energy resources is the fundamental measures to promote energy saving and emission reduction,as well as relief the contradiction between energy supply and demand. Based on uncertain optimization methods,an optimal energy allocation model has been developed. With relevant data, the developed model has been applied to a case study within a multi-facility, multi-period and multi-demand-level context to demonstrate the feasibility. Weighing the economic targets and environmental goals,optimal resources supply,electricity and heat generation,capacity expansion and pollution control plans have been generated at the lowest system cost. Moreover,factorial method has been used for sensitivity analysis to the model results,it could address the key impact factors to the selected objective. The proposed model could be helpful for providing decision support of optimal energy allocation policies.
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