中国人口集聚对区域经济发展的影响研究

摘要

人口集聚和区域不均衡是经济发展的普遍现象,中国的人口空间分布和区域经济发展也表现出明显的不均衡特征.人口集聚除了具有静态的人口空间分布状态的含义外,还具有动态的人口向特定区域流动迁移的含义.人口集聚既是过程也是结果,研究人口集聚比单方面的人口空间分布研究或人口流动迁移研究更具挑战性,也更有学术价值与现实意义.本文以2000~2015年省级数据为样本,根据人口集聚地区人口规模大和人口密度高的特点,利用人口密度的区域倍数指标来测量我国人口集聚水平,分析其变动特征,建立面板数据模型实证分析人口集聚对区域经济发展的影响,探讨人口集聚影响区域经济发展水平的途径机制.研究发现我国人口集聚程度按东部、中部、西部顺序依次降低,东部地区的集聚程度不断提高;人口集聚对区域经济发展水平具有显著的正影响,人口集聚程度每提高1%,区域经济发展水平将提高1.064%,西部地区人口集聚的经济效应最大,资本和外向型经济发展水平对区域经济发展也具有显著正影响;城镇化、人力资本和人口抚养比是人口集聚影响区域经济发展的重要途径,人口集聚能够提高集聚地区的城镇化率和人力资本水平,降低地区人口抚养比,促进区域经济发展.基于此,提出促进地区人口集聚、加快城镇化进程、积极发挥人口集聚经济效应等政策建议.%Population agglomeration and regional imbalance are the common phenomena of economic devel-opment.The disequilibrium characteristics of population spatial distribution and regional economic develop-ment in China are obvious.In addition to the state of population spatial distribution,population agglomera-tion had the dynamic meaning of the migration of population.Population agglomeration was not only a pro-cess but also a result.The studies on the population agglomeration were more challenging and more academ-ic and practical. According to the features of population agglomeration,such as large population size and high population density,we used the population density times to measure and analyze population agglomera-tion characteristics in China,made an empirical study on the impact of population agglomeration on region-al economic development,analyzed the mechanism of population agglomeration affecting regional economic development.The results showed that the population agglomeration degree in the eastern,central and west-ern regions decreased in sequence,and agglomeration degree in the eastern region was increasing.Popula-tion agglomeration had a significant positive impact on the regional economic development;regional eco-nomic development increased 1.064% as the degree of population agglomeration increased 1%.The effect of the population agglomeration in the western region was the largest.The capital stock,FDI,export and im-port indicators had a significant positive impact on the development of regional economy.Urbanization,hu-man capital and population dependency ratio were the important ways which population agglomeration influ-enced regional economic development;population agglomeration improved urbanization and human capital, and reduced the population dependency ratio,which benefited the regional economic development.Finally, some policy suggestions were put forward,such as the economic effect of population agglomeration,promot-ing regional population agglomeration,accelerating the process of urbanization and strengthening the eco-nomic effect of population agglomeration.