生产与人口的集中促进了经济增长吗？——来自日本的经验和教训

摘要

China's urbanization process is similar to Japan:production and population concentrate in big cities.So the lessons from Japan may be helpful for us.Is over-concentration of production and population helpful for growth? The empirical analysis in this paper shows that over-concentration has significant correlation with Japan's recession in the long time.And the change of exchange rate has insignificant negative effect on Japan's recession.The result argues that,China should control the scale of big cities reasonably,and support the development of medium and small-sized cities in the process of urbanization.%中国城市化进程与日本存在较大的类似：生产与人口不断向大城市集中。因此,日本城市化的经验教训对于我国具有重要的意义。那么,生产与人口的集中真的会带来经济的增长吗？本文采用相关数据对日本的情况进行了经验研究,结果发现生产与人口的过度集中对于日本经济长期衰退存在较强的显著性作用;而汇率的变化对于日本的经济衰退却不存在显著作用。因此,我国城市化过程应吸取日本的教训,适度控制大城市规模和支持中小城市的发展,将有利于促进我国城市化的良性发展。