研究话题热度预测问题对于网络广告传播效应最大化、网络舆论引导与控制等具有重要意义。首先，根据用户关系及话题因素计算用户影响力，进而定义话题影响力。然后，基于老化理论并考虑话题影响力和话题相关微博数定义话题能量值，量化话题热度。最后，提出基于小波变换与差分自回归移动平均模型的微博话题热度预测方法，以此预测话题热度(能量值)及话题能量峰值。实验表明，文中方法可有效预测话题热度及峰值，具有较低的残差和遗漏率。%The research of topic popularity prediction problem can be an important significance for maximizing the propagation effects of network advertisements as well as guiding and controlling the network consensus. Firstly, according to user relationship and topic factor, user influence is computed and topic influence is defined. Then, based on aging theory, topic energy value is calculated by considering both topic influence and the number of microblogs related to the topic, and the heat of topic is quantified. Finally, an method named topic popularity prediction of microblog based on wavelet transformation and autoregressive integrated moving average model is proposed to predict topic popularity of microblog and forecast when a topic will hit the peak. Experimental results show that the proposed method can effectively predict the topic popularity and the peak of a topic with lower residual error and omission rate.
展开▼
