战争与和平：美国对华战略的运用--以战略困境模型为研究中心

摘要

美国在如何对中国实施遏制的问题上举棋不定，陷入困境。为此，本文将建立一个多阶段两国博弈模型，即战略困境模型。该模型将从理论上对美国的战略困境进行解释。同时，通过对该模型的分析和其后的经验论证，系统分析相对实力的变化所导致的美国战略困境，以及该困境下美国将做出的战略选项。本文认为，这一结论既能解释当前美国对华政策所表现出的两面性，又预测了未来美国的战略动向。%This article will build a strategic dilemma model,which is a multi -stage bilateral game.This model theoretically expounds America's dilemma when it interacted with China.Then through theoretical a-nalysis and empirical argument,this article systematically answers the questions about what kind power comparison between China and America would cause the strategic dilemma,and which strategic option would America choose in this dilemma.Finally,this article could fairly predict America’s future strategy.