冷战后泰国和马来西亚对国际协定的执行力探析--基于AIA协定和CEP T协定的分析

摘要

The paper, in which the Two⁃level⁃Games theory is applied, constructs the model by three varia⁃bles that be defined in carrying on international agreement named the domestic preference structure, the in⁃fluence and the transition depth, and by an intervening variable that interest groups can keep game informa⁃tion balance. The comparative analysis of the implement about AIA and CEPT in Thailand and Malaysia shows that, ( 1) Interest preference division between ASEAN members is an important variable that affects the proper execution of national agreement. ( 2) ASEAN members� interest groups redistribute their influ⁃ence in the domestic politics directly which leads to redistribute the implement of international agreement. ( 3) The transition depth of ASEAN members decides the direction of the international agreement.%本文运用双层博弈论原理，通过对国际协定执行中国内的偏好结构、影响力、转型深度等三个变量，以及一个干预变量———利益集团对博弈的平衡的模型建构，并结合泰国和马来西亚两国对AIA协定和CEPT协定执行情况的对比分析认为：（1）东盟成员国国内的利益偏好分化是影响国际协定能否恰当执行的重要变量。（2）东盟成员国的利益集团在国内政治中进行再分布，直接导出国际协定执行力的再分配。（3）东盟成员国的转型深度决定国际协定执行力的走向。