需求可延期满足的报童模型研究

摘要

In view of the logistics demand that cargos are not always needed to send at the first time,merchants should design and offer suitable service.Based on typical operations management practice,using cargo space booking optimization problem as an example,this paper put forward a new kind of newsvendor model that demand can be extended to meet.Upon reviewing the previous research on newsvendor model systematically,this paper analysis its similarities and differences to the basic newsvendor model and the key difficulty to solve,discuss the existence and uniqueness of the solution,explore a approach through which this problem can be translated into the basic newsvendor model,build "Newsvendor-Dichotomy of Bolzano iterative algorithm" to solve it,validate its correctness and effectiveness with double numerical simulation by training and test dataset.The important value of this paper is that it proposed a new kind of operating model for demand management:For stochastic demand which can be extended to meet,"demand stocking" can be realized by offering compensation,the demand and supply can be well utilized bothly,the server and consumer can reach win-win and the social welfare can be promoted.%针对毋须“第一时间”发送的物流需求,商家应设计、提供与此相匹配的服务,基于此运作管理背景,本文以典型问题“可延期发送的货运代理商最优订舱”为例,构建“需求可延期满足的报童模型”.在系统回顾“报童模型”研究的基础上,分析其与基本报童模型的异同及求解难点,讨论解的存在性及唯一性,探索将其转化为基本报童模型的途径,构建“报童-波尔查诺二分迭代”求解算法,使用训练与测试数据集双重数值模拟验证算法的正确性和有效性.本文重要的价值在于提出了一种新的需求管理运营模式:针对于可延期满足的随机需求,通过提供补偿的方式实现“需求库存化”,需求和供给都得以充分利用,实现供需双方共赢,提升社会效益.