产出不确定性的三级供应链风险分担组合契约设计

摘要

研究了供应商和制造商产出随机且零售商面临随机需求的三级供应链协调模型,决策变量为供应商的原材料投入量、制造商的订购量和零售商的订购量.分析了集中决策下供应链协调基准的唯一性,论证了回购契约及其与产出风险分担组合契约的协调性.研究结果表明,对于产出和需求不确定的三级供应链,仅考虑在制造商和零售商之间采用回购契约可改善供应链绩效,但并不能实现供应链的全局最优化,而从风险分担的角度设计的回购和产出风险分担组合契约不仅能有效的协调供应链,且在一定条件下,各供应链成员的利润还能获得帕累托改进.通过算例验证了以上结论的正确性,并分析了回购价格对订购量、原材料投入量和利润的影响,以及各供应链成员对契约的偏好.%This paper researches the coordination of a three level supply chain system consisting of one supplier,one manufacturer and one retailer.The decision variables include the raw material quantity of the supplier,the order quantity of the manufacturer and the order quantity of the retailer.The uniqueness of the supply chain coordination benchmark under centralized decision-making is analyzed,and the coordination of buy back contract,buy back and output risk sharing combined contract demonstrated.The results show that the buyback contract used by the manufacturer and the retailer can improve the supply chain performance,but can''t achieve the global optimization of the supply chain.From the perspective of risk sharing,the buy back and output risk sharing combined contract can not only coordinate the supply chain effectively,but also obtain the Pareto improvement of the profit of the members of the supply chain under certain conditions.The correctness of the above conclusions is verified by a numerical example,and the effect of the buyback price on the order quantity,the amount of raw material input and the profit are analyzed.At the same time,we also analyze the contract preferences of each supply chain members.