近年来愈发严重的雾霾天气,使得交通运输行业的节能减排问题成为中国能源与环境战略研究领域的重中之重.因此,有必要研究交通运输结构调整对节能减排的影响效应.在考虑别国交通运输行业结构变化对我国交通节能减排示范效应以及数据可得性的基础上,本文利用1990~2011年公路、铁路、水运、民航客货周转量和交通碳排放量的数据,构建以中国、美国、欧盟以及日本为截面个体的面板数据模型.实证结果表明对于结构减排效应最明显的日本和欧盟来说,日本铁路周转量占比每提高1%,本国的单位周转量碳排放减少3.63%,欧盟水运周转量占比每提高1%,单位周转量碳排放将减少22.11%.而我国对应的这一数字分别为0.38%和0.06%,表明我国交通运输行业在结构性碳减排方面潜力很大.最后基于交通运输行业供给侧改革的背景,结合本文研究结果从客运和货运两方面提出了相关政策建议.%As the hazy weather attacks the whole of China in recent years,the issue of energy conservation and emission reduction in transport industry has become the top priority of China''s energy and environmental strategies.In view of this,this paper intends to discuss the impact of transport structure optimization on traffic emission reduction.Considering other nations'' traffic demonstration effect and data availability,this paper involved China,the United States,the European Union and Japan as cross-sections,builds panel data model,of which the data we chose including passenger-freight turnover(road,railway,waterage and civil aviation)and transport carbon emissions from 1991~2011.The empirical results show that the increase of the share of waterage and railway will lead to traffic carbon emissions reduction,especially,1% increase in Japan railway proportion would make the carbon emission performance decrease by 3.63%;1% increase in EU waterage proportion would make the carbon emission performance by 22.11%;respectively ranking first of such two transit ways.The corresponding effect in China is only 0.38% and 0.06%.Finally,in context of "the reform of supply side",we propose corresponding suggests from the respects of passenger transport and freight transport.
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