基于故障树分析的堰塞湖溃坝概率估计方法

摘要

A key problem with eliminating the damage of barrier lake is how to estimate the failure probability of barrier lake dam given that different response actions are carried out.It is an important research topic that deserves more attention.This paper proposes a method based on Fault Tree Analysis(FTA)for estimating the failure probability of barrier lake dam.First,by analyzing the practical backgrounds of eliminating the damages of barrier lakes,the basic framework of the fault tree for failures of barrier lake dams is constructed based on FTA.Then,according to the knowledge of related academic fields,the analysis of historical cases,the subjective judgments of experts and the fusion of the subjective judgments of multiple experts,and the probabilities of each basic event in the fault tree can be estimated with respect to different time periods and different response actions.Furthermore,according to the constructed fault tree and the probabilities of basic events,an approach is proposed for estimating the failure probabilities of the barrier lake dam in different time periods.Finally,a case study is given to illustrate the feasibility and validity of the proposed method.%堰塞湖排险的一个关键问题是如何针对实施不同应对措施情况下的堰塞湖溃坝概率进行估计,这是一个值得关注的重要研究课题.本文提出了一种基于故障树分析(FTA)的堰塞湖溃坝概率估计方法.首先,通过堰塞湖排险问题的实际背景分析,基于FTA构建了堰塞湖溃坝故障树的基本架构;然后,通过相关领域知识、历史案例分析、专家主观判断和多位专家主观判断信息的融合,可以确定实施某一应对措施情形下故障树中各基本事件在不同时段内发生的概率;进一步地,依据构建的故障树和基本事件发生的概率,给出了在不同时段内堰塞湖溃坝事件发生的概率的估计方法.最后,通过一个实例分析说明了本文所提出方法的可行性与有效性.