基于响应面拟合方法中国铅基研究实验堆非能动余热排出系统可靠性分析

摘要

非能动系统已广泛地应用于新一代堆的设计中，其可靠性分析成为新型反应堆概率安全评价(Probabilistic Safety Analysis, PSA)的重要内容。本文提出一种用于非能动系统可靠性分析的响应面拟合方法，并应用于中国铅基研究实验堆反应堆容器空气冷却系统(Reactor Vessel Air Cooling System, RVACS)的可靠性分析。采用流体计算软件Fluent模拟RVACS系统的输入输出作为求解响应面性能函数的输入样本，利用最小二乘法和bootstrap方法估计响应面性能函数的系数，以响应面模型代替Fluent模型分析RVACS系统的非能动失效概率。分析表明，在所有能动余热排除系统不可用的情况下，RVACS 四组并联排热管中的两组也能够可靠地导出反应堆余热。RVACS系统可靠性高。%Background: Passive system has been widely applied in the design of the new generation reactor, and the reliability analysis has become a key matter in the Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) frame.Purpose: A response-surface-fitting method for the reliability analysis of passive systems is presented and applied in Reactor Vessel Air Cooling System (RVCAS) of China lead-based research reactor (CLEAR-I).Methods: The inputs and outputs for Fluent model of RVCAS were set as the input samplings, and least square method and bootstrap method were used to solve the performance function of response surface which was used to evaluate the reliability of passive RVCAS, instead of Fluent model.Results: The results showed that two of four sets RVACS pipes can remove residual heat of reactor during loss of power with the probability of 0.9938.Conclusion: The system is highly reliable.