基于贝叶斯估计的测试性仿真评估方法研究

摘要

Classical testability parameters estimation method only uses the general information provided by the samples, without other information such as testability baseline information in the development stage of the equipment and rich expert data. Therefore, the classic estimation method is difficult to reflect the testability level of the equipment in small samples situation. In view of the above questions, this paper proposed a kind of testability assessment method combining simulation test data with the precondition of integrated equipment prior information, which called the testability parameters prior information acquisition methods based on Bayes estimation, and gived the point estimation way and interval estimation way for the testability parameters.%经典测试性参数估计方法仅利用了样本所提供的关于总体的信息,没有利用关于待估统计量的其他信息,例如装备在研制阶段的测试性摸底试验以及丰富的专家数据；因此,这种经典估计方法在小样本情况下,很难真实反映装备的测试性水平.针对以上问题,本文提出了一种在获取仿真试验数据的前提下,进行综合装备先验信息测试性评估的方法,即基于贝叶斯估计的测试性水平估计,研究了测试性参数先验信息获取方法,给出了测试性参数的点估计和区间估计方法.