城市轨道交通站点客流时变特征及其影响因素研究--以上海为例

摘要

The contradiction between insufifcient capability in the peak hours while excessive capacity in the off-peak is becoming an crucial issue in Shanghai urban rail operation. We study the diurnal pattern of subway ridership in Shanghai. Based on the cluster analysis, four main classes of the diurnal pattern are investigated. Then we demonstrate that station ridership is signiifcantly associated with the land use pattern and transportation supply around the station by using multi-logit model. Our study contributes to the land use planning and transportation planning around subway stations, the interaction relationship between land use and transportation, and the design and management of urban mass transit.%轨道交通快速发展的背景下，高峰时段运能不足和非高峰时运能过剩已经成为现阶段上海轨道交通运营组织中遇到的突出问题。研究利用上海轨道交通站点客流数据，首先利用聚类分析算法分析得到进站客流的四种主要时变模式，然后通过建立多项Logit回归模型，从土地利用、交通等方面定量分析影响客流时变模式的显著因素。研究可为站点周边用地规划和交通设施规划及运营管理提供参考，有助于促进土地利用与交通的协调发展。