基于气象因素敏感模型的短期电力负荷预测

摘要

In order to consider the problem that short-term power load is easily influenced by weather factor, a neural network forecasting model with weather sensitivity based on fast BP algorithm is presented. The main weather factors are considered in the model,which are suitable for the change of weather. Simulation results show that the weather factors sensitive mode applied to short-term load forecasting of power system is feasible and effective, and its forecasting results is more accurate than the traditional method.%为了充分考虑地区电网短期负荷易受气象因素影响的特点,提出了一种具有天气敏感性的基于快速BP算法的神经网络预测模型,模型中合理地考虑了影响负荷变化的主要气象因素,使其能够适应天气的变化.通过对咸阳地区电网的仿真预测,证明了天气因素敏感模型应用于地区电网短期负荷预测后使预测精度明显提高,故建立的模型是可行和有效的.