基于威布尔分布的水利设备可靠性分析模型及应用

摘要

To solve the problem of reliability uncertainty in the running process of water facility, a reliability analysis model of water facility was established based on the Weibull distribution. In this model, the estimation of the Weibull distribu-tion model's parameters is the key matter, which directly influences the accuracy of reliability analysis model. Since the tra-ditional parameter estimation methods have disadvantages such as man - made factor effect, low precision and discommodious operation, a new method estimating the parameters of Weibull distribution model by combining the least square method and mean rank method is put forward. An example was taken to verify the feasibility of the method.%针对水利设备运行过程中可靠性不确定性问题,运用威布尔分布建立了水利设备可靠性分析模型.该模型中,威布尔分布参数估计是关键,直接决定了可靠性分析模型的精度.由于传统的参数估计法人为因素影响大、精度差且操作繁琐,提出了联合最小二乘法和平均秩次法来估计威布尔分布模型参数.通过实例验证了上述方法的可行性.