Method of forecasting seismic energy induced by longwall exploitation based on changes in ground subsidence

摘要

A method of forecasting total seismic energy induced by longwall exploitation, based on changes in ground subsidence, is presented in the form of a linear regression model with one with one independent variable. In the method, ground subsidence is described with a cross-section area of a subsidence trough Pw along a line of observations in the direction of an advancing longwall front, approximately along the axis of the longwall area. Total seismic energy is determined on the basis of seismic energy data of tremors induced by exploitation. The presentation consists of a detailed method and evaluation of its predictive ability for the area of longwall exploitation within the region of one of the coal mines in the Upper Silesian Coal Basin. This method can be used for forecasting the total seismic energy released by tremors within the area directly connected with the exploitation, in which the seismic activity induced by this exploitation occurs. The estimation of the parameters of the determined model should each time be carried out with investigations of the correctness of the model. The method cannot be applied when the number of recorded phenomena is small and when there is insufficient data to make it possible to calculate the index Pw.