电力负荷与气象因子的关系研究

摘要

通过对长泰1997—2013年逐月供电量与温度、湿度等气象因子的相关性进行分析，得出长泰供电量与气象因子之间的关系。应用非线性最小二乘法得到供电量与气象要素的拟合曲线和定量对应关系，并根据日常气候预测预报结论建立了月供电量预测业务模型，为电力部门提供更加专业、定量的服务产品，为其合理调度提供科学依据。%Through Changtai 1997-2013 year monthly electricity supply and the temperature, humidity and other weather factors correlation analysis, the relationship Changtai between power supply and meteorological factors. Application of nonlinear least-squares curve fitting method to obtain quantitative correspondence between the power supply and meteorological elements, and in accordance with the daily weather forecast Conclusion forecast monthly electricity supply business model for the electricity sector to provide more professional and quantitative services and products, as provide the scientific basis of its reasonable dispatch.