俄罗斯探空观测减少对GRAPES模式的影响分析

摘要

The radiosonde observation is one of the most important data in the data assimilation system.The Russia radiosonde observation was adjusted in January 2015,and reduced some observations at 0000 UTC and 1200 UTC.In order to verify the effect on GRAPES model,the impact experiment was carried out.The observation was retrieved from National Meteorological Information Centre of China Meteorological Adminisration (NMIC/CMA) database.The GRAPES wind analysis of Russia Region became worse because of the Russia radiosonde adjustment,but the impact on the other regions was not so much.The height analysis became a little better in Russia and East Asian Regions,which may be related to the height observation quality.From the changes of anomaly correlation coefficient of the 500 hPa height forecast,the adjustment has positive effect on the forecast for East Asia.%在观测资料同化系统中,探空资料是重要的资料之一.由于俄罗斯探空观测在2015年1月进行了调整,分别在0000 UTC和1200 UTC减少部分探空观测,为检验探空观测调整对GRAPES模式的影响,选取2014年1月从中国气象局国家气象信息中心数据库中检索到的探空资料进行了影响试验.从分析检验结果来看,俄罗斯探空站点减少后GRAPES模式对俄罗斯大部地区的风场分析变差,对其他地区风场分析影响不大;俄罗斯地区和东亚地区的高度场分析略有变好,这与缺失站点高度场观测质量有关.从500 hPa高度预报场的距平相关系数变化来看,减少观测对东亚地区5d以后的预报略有改善,其他地区预报影响变化不大.