民用飞机健康管理决策的不确定性分析

摘要

Health management is an effective way to assure the flight safety and economy.Aiming at the uncertainty of health management strategies,firstly we analyzed the uncertainty sources of the monitoring system based on the principle of monitoring approaches.Then the uncertainty factors in the signal detection and processing and threshold confirmation were explored and the uncertainty factors from the model used for life predication and maintenance strategy-making were analyzed.Finally,the corresponding tactics for reducing uncertainty in every stage were proposed in the paper,which provide useful references for designing prognostics and health management capacity of aircrafts.%对飞机实施健康管理是保证飞行安全与经济的有效手段,针对飞机关键系统健康管理决策的不确定性问题展开研究,利用监测手段的原理分析了状态监测环节中引入的不确定性。分析了信号检测与处理、阈值确定过程中的不确定性因素,分析了基于模型的寿命预测和维修决策环节中的不确定性来源。最后针对各个环节给出了相应的降低不确定性的对策。