基于连锁故障模型的电网风险评估研究

摘要

A new method is put forward to assess power system security via a cascading model. Compared with the traditional N-k, the method considers all factors that affect the process of cascading, including the trip of overloading line, the automatic security equipment and the hidden failure of line protection. And the paper focuses on the multiple hidden failure of line protection, and adopts Bayesian network to identify the probability of every fault series. And the paper defines two risk indices, the line risk and the node risk. The simulation on IEEE 30 system proves the effectiveness of the method.%提出了一种基于连锁故障模型的电网风险评估新方法。较传统基于N-1、N-2故障扫描的风险评估方法，该方法全面计及了线路的过载切除、安全稳定装置和线路保护隐性故障等影响连锁故障发展的因素，重点考虑了线路保护的多重隐性故障这类复杂情况，通过引入贝叶斯网络确定可能发生的各故障序列概率，最后定义了线路风险、节点风险这两项核心指标，从而实现了对电网风险程度的量化与评价。以IEEE30节点系统为例的仿真表明了本算法的有效性。