控制系统的Bayes可靠性评估算法

摘要

针对特定试验条件下小子样控制系统可靠性评定的特点,提出了利用验前信息来弥补现场试验信息不足的改进双重Bayes MC方法.在对单元可靠性分析的基础上,给出单元的可信验前信息,依据特定的可靠性框图,结合有限的系统试验数据,推导出试验用控制系统可靠性评估步骤和计算公式,并对系统可靠度进行了数值仿真计算,计算结果令人满意.%In specific test conditions, to meet the demand of control system reliability evaluation under small sample, an improved double Bayes MC method that uses prior information as a remedy for the deficiency of field test information is presented. On the bases of units reliability analysis, units credible prior information are given. By using reliability block diagram and limited system experiment data, control system reliability evaluation steps and calculation formula are established. System reliability numerical simulation is calculated and results are satisfactory.