上海世博会影响力的定量评估

摘要

2010年上海世博会的成功举办,对我国影响很大,而且涉及方面很广,采用大家比较重视的旅游业这一侧面做为切入点,选择能很好的反映旅游业状况的入境旅游人数,根据近30年上海入境旅游人数的相关数据,建立曲线模型预测在自然状态下2010年世博会期间的入境旅游人数.用预测值与实际值对比,反映出世博会的影响力将持续85年.%Shanghai World Expo in 2010 have remarkable effect on our country, and provides a wide range around our country. This paper taking "tourism" as the Breakthrough Point, chose the number of inbound tourist arrivals to uncover tourism industry clearly. According to the data of the number of inbound tourist arrivals in Shanghai for the last 30 years, and set a curve model to predict the number of inbound tourist in Shanghai during shanghai World Expo 2010 under natural condition. Contrast the predicted and actual value, and draw a conclusion that the Expo will last 85 years.