钢铁企业煤气富余量的统计学分析与应用

摘要

基于某钢铁企业的统计数据,分别利用概率分布和相关性分析对该钢铁企业富余煤气量的特性和规律进行了研究.结果表明:富余煤气量的概率分布可以作为钢铁企业煤气系统性能衡量的指标之一,且全年的富余量呈现正态分布,其参数也反映了不同时间段的煤气平衡状况;日富余煤气量所具有的正自相关性一定程度上体现了需结合企业历史数据对其进行预测.该研究结果对改善煤气系统的平衡具有一定的参考价值,也是自备电厂煤气供入量预测的基础和关键.%The characteristics and laws of surplus gas were studied,which through the way of probability distribution and correlation analysis based on the statistics of an iron and steel plant.The results show that:probability distribution of the surplus gas can be used as one of the indicators to evaluate performance of iron and steel enterprises.Meanwhile,the surplus gas can be expressed by a normal distribution in the whole year,the surplus gas balance of different time periods is reflected about the size of the parameter.The positive correlation of surplus gas with each other in a certain extent show that prediction must depend on enterprise historical.The results of the study have some reference value to improve the balance of the gas system,it is also the foundation and key for the gas prediction of selfowned power plant.