连云港海岸带土地利用／覆盖变化与驱动力分析

摘要

With the increase of population and economic development, Lianyungang coastal land use / cover change（LUCC） continues to accelerate, the study of land use / cover change on spatial pattern of coastal economic development is of some significance. Based on three TM / ETM remote sensing images （1987, 2000, 2009）, the land use / cover classification maps were completed with the visual interpretation method and the analysis data of land use / cover change was performed with the ArcGIS software. The land use / cover change, the land use structure change and the landscape pattern of the coastal zone in Lianyungang were analyzed in detailed. Eleven analysis factors were selected in the principal component analysis , and with the statistical analysis software DPS9.5 of Zhejiang University, the correlation coefficient matrix, eigenvalue, and the contribution of each principal component and the total contribution rate were calculated. The analysis results show that the socio-economic driving forces of the coastal zone LUCC in Lianyungang were economic development, population, total port cargo throughput and aquatic production.%随着人口的增加以及经济的发展, 连云港市海岸带土地利用/覆盖变化不断加剧, 研究土地利用/覆盖空间格局变化对促进沿海经济发展具有一定意义。利用3 期TM/ETM 遥感影像（1987 年、2000 年、2009 年）, 采用目视解译方法完成土地利用/覆盖分类图, 运用ArcGIS 软件获取了土地利用/覆盖变化分析数据, 对连云港海岸带的土地利用/覆盖结构变化和土地利用景观格局变化进行详细分析。选择了11 个分析因子, 运用浙江大学统计分析软件DPS9.5 中主成分分析方法, 计算得到相关系数矩阵、特征值及各个主成分的贡献率与累计贡献率, 分析结果表明： 影响连云港海岸带土地利用/覆盖变化的社会经济驱动力主要是经济发展、人口、港口货物吞吐量、水产品总产量。