可能最大风暴潮风险评估中各等级热带气旋设定方法

摘要

可能最大热带气旋的设定是可能最大风暴潮计算的基础，对风暴潮灾害应急疏散具有重要意义。利用1949~2011年中国气象局(CMA)西北太平洋热带气旋最佳路径数据集、美国联合台风预警中心(JTWC)以及美国国家海洋和大气管理局(NOAA)最大风速半径数据集，基于各等级热带气旋参数之间的定量关系，建立了各等级可能最大热带气旋最大风速、中心气压、最大风速半径、移动速度、移动方向等参数设定及路径合成的方法。以福建省连江县为例，按照台风、强台风及超强台风强度等级，分强度衰减和不衰减2种情况，设定3种移动方向，合成了共216场热带气旋作为可能最大风暴潮的计算输入。另外，对参数敏感性、风场参数设定、参数设定与计算量的关系、叠加天文潮以及溃堤等问题进行了讨论。%The parameterization of Probable Maximum Tropical Cyclones (PMTC) is of great importance to the computation of Probable Maximum Storm Surge (PMSS) for emergency evacuation planning at different scales of tropical cyclones. Based on the Best Track Dataset (1949-2011) of the western north pacific from CMA and other two databases, the radius of maximum wind from JTWC and NOAA, the quantitative relationships between the maximum winds and other parameters of various scales wereanalyzed and modeled. A method wasdeveloped to set maximum sustained wind, central pressure, radius of maximum winds, forward velocity and direction, and then to synthetize the full track with the above parameters. Taking Liangjiang County, Fujian province as an example area, 216 tropical cyclones were synthetized for tropical cyclones scaled at typhoon, severe typhoon and super typhoon, with decay and no-decay at 3 major directions. At last, parameter sensitivity, Holland B parameter setting, wind field parameter setting and computation resource requirement, astronomical tide, and dam failure, etc. were dis-cussed.