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基于Copula函数的波高与周期长期联合分布

     

摘要

基于二元copula函数构建波高与相应波周期的长期联合分布.以粤东汕尾海域最大波高与相应平均周期为研究实例,经分析获得以下结果:(1)经拟合优度检验优选的年最大波高与相应周期的边缘分布分别为皮尔逊三型分布和广义极值分布,二者之间的较优连接函数为Archimedcan类的Gumbel-Hougaard copula函数; (2)同频率条件下年最大波高和相应周期联合概率分布的设计要素值高于单变量的设计值,其中波高设计值的差异略大于周期设计值; (3)同现重现期和联合重现期的设计值可作为海岸海洋工程建设中的设计波高和相应周期的上限和下限; (4)条件概率1表明,同频率下的年最大波高和相应周期的遭遇概率很高,其组合概率可作为工程建筑物损毁风险率.%This paper deals with the long-term joint distribution of wave height and period based on the bivariate copula functions. A case is studied by using annual maximum wave heights and the relevant periods measured in Shanwei sea waters along eastern Guangdong. Some conclusions were reached,as follows; (1)Optimized marginal distributions of annual maximum wave heights and relevant wave periods can be represented by Pearson pattern three distribution and generalized extreme value distribution, respectively,and Gumbel-Hougaard Copula that belongs to Archimedean copula family was selected by using goodness-of-fit test; (2)Comparing the joint distribution, the design values of annual maximum wave heights and relevant periods were higher than those of single variable under the same frequency condition,in which difference of design values of wave heights was slightly larger than that of wave period; (3)The design values of joint return periods and co-occurrence periods of wave heights and the relevant periods could be used as upper and lower bound in the coastal ocean engineering construction design; (4)Conditional probability 1 indicated that the encounter probabilities of annual maximum waves with the relevant wave periods were very high, and the combination of probabilities can be as an engineering building damage risk rate.

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