我国执业(助理)医师需求集成预测——基于GM、ARIMA和VAR模型的实证研究

摘要

The demand forecast of medical and health personnel is of great significance for the implementation of the "Healthy China 2030" Plan and is helpful for the promotion of medical and health system reform.We forecast China's licensed (assistant) doctors with GM (1,1),ARIMA and VAR model respectively.Based on a dynamic integration method,this paper integrates the forecast results of three models above,which effectively improve the prediction accuracy.Finally the empirical results show that the demand of licensed (assistant) doctors in 2020 is consistent with the goal set out by the State Council in "Healthy China 2030" Plan,while the planned goal in 2030 is lower than the demand.The research of this paper provides several guidance and management enlightenments to the National Health Department.%医疗卫生人员需求预测对于我国实施《“健康中国2030”规划纲要》、深入推进医药卫生制度改革具有重要的基础意义.本文通过建立GM(1,1)、ARIMA和VAR模型,分别对我国执业(助理)医师需求量进行了建模预测,基于集成方法的思想,将上述三个模型的预测结果进行集成分析,有效地提高了预测精度.集成预测模型的结果显示,2020年我国执业(助理)医师需求量恰与同期发布的《“健康中国2030”规划纲要》的目标吻合,但2030年规划目标值低于居民的需求.鉴于此,本文提出了以“扩大规模、稳定队伍、拓宽渠道、节约利用”为思路的若干政策建议,可供国家相关部门决策参考.