考虑时段负荷特性差异的日前综合负荷预测方法研究与应用

摘要

Comprehensive prediction model can integrate different prediction method advantage,which greatly improves load forecasting accuracy.However,traditional method treats one day as a basic unit which makes it difficult to take the advantage of comprehensive prediction model.For this reason,this paper deeply studies the advantage of different types of power system short-term load forecast method.A time-dividing method is proposed which considers load characteristic differences in different time.On the basis,this paper puts forward a comprehensive load forecasting methods considering load characteristic.Finally,the results in practical application effect of Yantai power grid is introduced.%综合预测模型可以整合不同预测方法优势,从而大大提升负荷预测准确率.然而不同时段负荷特性不同,简单的以1天为单位构建综合预测模型,难以充分发挥综合预测模型的优势.为此,首先深入研究了当前电力系统中不同类型短期负荷方法的优势,充分考虑时段间负荷特性差异,科学划分负荷差异时段,在此基础上提出了日前负荷综合预测方法,最后介绍了本成果在烟台电网的实际应用效果.