北京市对外贸易与经济增长关系的实证研究

摘要

The paper studies empirically the relationship between the externally oriented trading of Beijing and its economic development and finds that in the long term, there is cointegration between the two and in the short term the contribution of importation to the economic growth is greater than that of exportation. A Granger causation test shows that, the economic development of Beijing is the Granger cause of exportation but exportation is not the Granger cause of the economic growth yet there exists a two-way cause-and-effect relationship between the economic growth of Beijing and importation. Finally, on the basis of an analysis of the findings, suggestions for policy-making are given.%结合北京市对外贸易与经济发展实际情况,采用实证分析的方法验证北京市对外贸易与经济增长之间的关系.结果表明北京市进出口贸易与经济增长存在长期的协整关系,短期内进口对经济增长的影响要大于出口.Granger因果检验显示,北京市经济增长是出口的Granger原因,出口不是经济增长的Granger原因,经济增长与进口存在双向因果关系.在对结论进行分析后提出了政策建议.