港珠澳大桥通车后珠海市物流需求预测研究

摘要

分析了港珠澳大桥通车后给珠海市物流业带来的影响,选取货运量作为物流需求指标,先用灰色预测和神经网络组合的方法对珠海市2012-2014年的货运量进行了预测,再针对港珠澳大桥通车后给珠海市带来的物流需求的突增,选取珠海GDP指标用弹性系数法对2015-2020年的货运量进行了预测,得出结论:大桥通车后,珠海市货运量较2008年将增长近一倍.%In this paper, we analyzed the influence of the opening of the Hongkong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge upon the logistics industry of Zhuhai, forecast the freight volume of the city from 2012 to 2014 and the freight volume from 2015 to 2020 by selecting the GDP of Zhuhai as the index and using flexible coefficient melhod, reaching the conclusion that after the opening of the bridge, the freight volume of Zhuhai would double on the basis of 2008.