中部六省区域物流与经济发展的协整分析与因果检验

摘要

In this paper, by choosing regional GDP and freight volume as the indexes in measuring the level of economic development and logistics industry of the six provinces in central China,we used the co-integration analysis and Granger causality check to study quantitatively the inter-relationship between the logistics industry, economic growth of the provinces and then discussed the indication of the findings and at the end, offered suggestions for the provinces.%选取地区GDP和货运量作为中部六省区域经济和物流产业发展水平的衡量指标，运用协整分析理论和Granger因果检验来定量研究中部六省物流业与区域经济增长之间的相互关系。结果表明，中部地区经济发展与物流产业之间存在长期均衡关系；中部六省经济增长与物流产业之间存在单向因果关系，即区域物流发展是推动中部六省区域经济增长的Granger原因，而中部六省GDP增长对区域物流发展的影响不是太显著。最后建议中部各省应按照“大市场，大流通”的思路来制定相关政策，将物流业作为重要的支柱产业，促进中部地区经济发展与物流产业之间的长效良性互动，从而实现中部崛起的战略目标。