铁路货运量分形插值拟合仿真与预测

摘要

In this paper, using the fractal interpolation theory, we built the fitting and simulation model of the dynamic changes in railway freight volume, yielded a process for the forecasting of railway freight volume capable of extrapolation, then through a case study, further demonstrated that the changes in railway freight volume had obvious fractal property, and at the end, through an empirical example, fitted and simulated the railway freight volume and forecast its worth at different future time points.%为了科学、准确地预测铁路货运量，首先基于分形插值理论，研究了铁路货运量动态变化的拟合仿真模型，探讨得出了基于分形插值的具有外推功能的铁路货运量预测方法。其次通过一个实例，进一步验证了铁路货运量变化具有较好的分形特征。最后，基于分形插值对铁路货运量进行了拟合仿真并对未来时间点铁路货运量进行了预测。实证分析表明，采用这种方法构建的铁路货运量拟合仿真模型及外推预测方法能较好地描述铁路货运量变化的分形性特征，具有便于编程、符合客观实际、与实际铁路货运量吻合度高等优点。