基于多元线性回归模型的上海市物流需求分析

摘要

In this paper, selecting the cargo transportation volume as the index measuring the logistics demand level, we analyzed empirically the economic data of Shanghai for the period between 2000 and 2013, used the Eviews program to build a multiple linear regression model and found that the total import/export volume had the most marked impact on the cargo transportation volume of the city.%选取货运量作为物流需求水平的指标，通过对上海市2000年至2013年的GDP、三大产业产值、进出口贸易总额、居民消费水平、社会消费品零售总额等经济数据进行实证分析，运用Eviews构建多元线性回归模型，且研究发现进出口贸易总额对上海货运量的影响最为显著。因此，大力发展进出口贸易将推动上海市物流需求水平的大幅提高。