基于NARX神经网络模型的船舶市场预测研究

摘要

Shipyards and ship owners have been always focusing their efforts on predicting future demand of ship market. To make the shipbuilding enterprises positively deal with the development and change of the future market, NARX nonlinear autoregressive neural network has been introduced and aimed at the prediction of ship market＇s short-tenn demand. This method has efficiently improved the accuracy and rationality of prediction. Furhermore, the problem of unable to make a reasonable, effective prediction completely due to the e, omplex economic environment and limited information has been solved properly. Thus, NARX nonlinear autoregressive neural network is of increasing importance in our national ship market and we are leading to discuss more details in this essay.%船舶市场的未来需求一直是船厂和船东关注的焦点。为使船舶制造企业能够积极面对未来市场的发展与变化．文章利用NARX自回归反馈网络对船舶市场进行短期预测。此法提高了对船舶市场预测的准确度及合理性．解决了目前由于经济环境复杂且资料有限而无法进行完全合理有效的预测的问题，以期对我国船舶市场的发展提供借鉴与参考。