木材加工厂原料需求量预测分析

摘要

Forecast the demand for wood raw material quantity is a key link of wood processing enterprises inventory control,even may directly affect overall planning for future operations planning of the plant.In this paper a man-made board factory of Fujian,which's wood raw material demand was for basic date,and the combination forecasting model using grey prediction and three exponential smoothing prediction was established,also the error sum of squares minimization method was adopted to define the optimal weights of single prediction model,finally the demand for wood raw material of man-made board factory was forecasted and analysed.%木质原料需求量预测是木材加工企业库存控制的关键环节，甚至会直接影响到加工厂未来运营计划的整体规划。文中以福建某造板厂木材原料需求量为基础数据，建立组合灰色预测和三次指数平滑预测的预测模型，采用误差平方和极小化的方法确定单项预测模型最优权重，并对造板厂木材原料需求量加以预测和分析。