基于灰色马尔科夫预测模型的福建省航空货运发送量预测

摘要

航空运输量的预测是航空运输规划的基础，文中以福建省航空货运发送量为预测对象，结合灰色系统理论与马尔科夫链理论，提出了灰色马尔科夫链预测模型，预测结果表明，模型精度比 GM(1.1)预测结果更好，能够反映福建省航空运输的发展趋势。%Airfreight volume forecast is the basis for the planning of air transport .With the Grey System Theory and the theory of Markov Chain, this paper comes up with the predictive model of the Grey-Markov Chain to forecasting the airfreight of Fujian. And it showed that, predictive results of the Grey Markov Chain model are more accurate than the GM(1.1) model's, and can better reflect the development trend of the airfreight volume of Fujian.