山东省物流业的发展需要对物流人才需求进行准确预估.分别采用二元线性回归预测模型和灰色预测法GM(1,1)模型对山东省2015~2020年的物流人才总量进行预测,然后借助最优加权组合法建立物流人才需求预测的组合模型,得到物流人才需求总量的组合预测值.结果显示:考察期间山东省对物流人才的需求持续增加,但是,随着人才基数的不断增大,增长速率呈现放缓趋势.最后,提出了实现预测目标的对策建议,为山东省人才培养决策提供参考.%The development of logistics industry in shandong province need to forecast the demand for logistics talents accurately.First of all the article predict the total logistics talents respectively using binary linear regression prediction model and grey prediction model GM (1, 1) model of shandong province in 2015~2020,and then build a combined forecasting model of logistics talent demand using the most superior weighting combination method and get the total combination of logistics talent demand finally.The result show that the demand of logistics talents is increased in shandong province during the investigation, however, the growth rate showed a trend to slow down with the increase of the base of talent.Finally the article put forward the countermeasures to realize the objective of predicting as a reference for the decision of the talent training in shandong province.
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