The weakness and externality of forestry would reduce the enthusiasm of farmers and hinder the de-velopment of forestry. Therefore, since 2009, the Central Government has launched forestry subsidies policy such as afforestation subsidy and tending subsidy. Whether forestry subsidies can affect the farmers' forestry investment or not? Based on the Central Government Forestry Subsidy pilot project in Zhejiang Province, this study selected 311 farmer households from Jiande City and Kaihua County, using Tobit model for empirical analysis. The results showed that forestry subsidy policies could significantly encourage farmers to increase in-vestment in forestry, each additional 1 yuan the farmers received from afforestation or tending subsidies would stimulate farmers to increase input by 0.13 yuan in forestry. The results passed the significant level test by 10 per cent and 1 per cent respectively. Variables including incomes from forestry and non-forestry, tree species and age of forest had a significantly positive impact on farmers' forestry investment; age of farmer household head and age of forest had a significantly negative impact on farmers' forestry input.%林业的弱质性、外部性等特点降低了农户营林积极性.为发展林业,2009年开始中央财政相继启动了森林抚育补贴、 造林补贴等林业补贴政策试点工作.政策实施后究竟能否影响农户的林业投入呢?基于浙江省中央财政林业补贴试点项目,选取建德市与开化县共311户农户,运用Tobit模型进行实证分析.研究结果发现:林业补贴政策能够显著激励农户增加林业投入,农户获得的造林补贴金额或抚育补贴金额每增加1.00元,将激励农户增加0.13元林业投入,结果分别通过10%及1%的显著水平检验.另外,林业收入、 其他非林收入、 营林树种及年份差异等变量对农户林业投入有显著的正向影响;户主年龄和林龄对农户林业投入有显著负影响.
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