基于VECM模型的出口技术结构与工资差距关系的实证分析--以制造业为例

摘要

This paper applies vector error correction model (VECM) for empirical test of co-integration causality of export technical structure and wage gap between skilled labor and unskilled labor in China's manufacturing from 1994 to 2012 . The results show that :the continuous upgrade of export technical structure export technical structure increases the relative demand and wage of skilled labor ,thereby in-creasing the wage gap of the skilled and unskilled labor .In the long run ,the upgrade of export technical structure has a significant positive effect on the expansion of wage gap at the 99% confidence level ,while the expansion of wage gap doesn ot disppay a significant effect on the upgrade of export technical structure at the 90% confidence level .In the short run ,the upgrade of export technical structure is Granger cause of the expansion of wage gap ,but the expansion of wage gap is not the cause of the upgrade of export techni-cal structure .%运用向量误差修正模型（VECM ）对中国制造业1994-2012年的出口技术结构与熟练和非熟练劳动力工资差距的协整因果关系做了实证检验。结果表明：出口技术结构的不断升级会增加我国熟练劳动力的相对需求以及工资收入，从而增加了制造业中熟练与非熟练劳动力的工资差距；从长期效应看，出口技术结构升级在置信度为99％下对工资差距扩大有显著的正向作用，而工资差距扩大在置信度为90％下对出口技术结构升级的促进作用不显著；从短期效应看，出口技术结构升级是工资差距扩大的格兰杰原因，但是工资差距扩大不是出口技术结构升级的原因。