中国老龄化高峰期农村养老金缺口预测研究

摘要

通过农村人口预测研究对老龄化高峰期进行判定，构建了老龄化高峰期农村养老金缺口精算模型，并以陕西省为例对模型进行应用，测算农村养老金收支与差额，重点分析老龄化高峰期特殊时段缺口变动趋势与形成机理；研究结果表明：2032－2060年，陕西省农村处于人口老龄化高峰期时段，农村养老金收支在目标期间呈现当期盈余、当期缺口、累积缺口三个发展阶段，且老龄化高峰期内农村人口结构和养老金收支双重失衡，缺口规模呈几何级数增长，制度、基金均面临不可持续性风险；针对农林人口老龄化，养老金缺口等问题，提出调整农村人口年龄结构，拓展多元化筹资渠道，设计弹性养老金计发办法，科学判定老龄化高峰期等政策建议。%With the accelerated process of population aging,the peak period of population aging gets close gradually and the rural elderly and their demand increase rapidly.As a result,the pension gap scale is enlarged and the pension imbalance risk is exacerbated.This study determines the peak period of population aging by the rural population predic-tion and builds a rural pension gap actuarial model for the peak period of population aging.The model is applied by tak-ing Shaanxi Province as an example to calculate the rural pension income and expenditure and analyze the trend and for-mation mechanism of the rural pension gap,especially during the peak period of population aging.The results show that Shaanxi Province will be in the peak period of population aging from 2032 to 2060.The rural pension income and ex-penditure will be in three stages:current surplus,current gap and cumulative gap,during the target period;the rural population structure and the pension income and expenditure will be unbalanced;the pension gap will be growing in the geometric progression during the peak period of population aging;the system and fund will face unsustainable risks.Fi-nally,in order to resolve the population aging and control the rural pension gap scale,some suggestions are proposed:adjusting the rural population structure,spreading diversified financing channels,designing flexible pension payment methods,and scientifically determining the peak period of rural population aging.