人口老龄化与货币政策有效性

摘要

With the increase of China′s ageing population,the research of the economic problems caused by aging pop-ulation is of great significance.In recent years,however,the related literature provide a number of explanations for the decline of effectiveness of monetary policy,but few focus on the impact of aging on the effectiveness of monetary policy. Therefore,this paper establishes the first DSGE model including aging factors of our country,aiming to explore the influ-ence of aging on the effectiveness of monetary policy in China.It comes to a conclusion that the effectiveness of monetary policy will decline with the aging tenor.This means that monetary policy should be more "radical"in the aging society, and at the same time,some population policy should be adopted to remit the aging process.%中国人口老龄化现象不断加重，研究人口老龄化对相关经济问题的影响具有重要意义。现有文献对货币政策有效性下降的现象提供了诸多解释，但关注人口老龄化对货币政策有效性影响的文献较少。为此首次建立了中国包含人口老龄化因素的 DSGE 模型，研究了人口老龄化对中国货币政策有效性的影响。结果发现，货币政策有效性将随着人口老龄化加重而下降。这意味着，货币政策在老龄化社会必须更加“激进”。同时应通过相应的人口政策，延缓老龄化进程。