信号交叉口车辆到达规律分析

摘要

信号交叉口是中断车流的重要结点，其车流到达规律的准确描述是交叉口信号控制设计的重要影响因素。信号交叉口车流的到达规律是随机且多样的，并服从一定的统计规律。本文对信号交叉口到达车流的到达时间间隔的统计分析进行拟合，发现信号交叉口车流的到达规律与其变异系数的平方存在耦合关联，并得出结论如下：对数正态分布的拟合范围为0.8874～0.9904，平均拟合度高达0.9489，拟合效果最佳；伽马分布的拟合度范围为0.5352～0.9449，平均的拟合度为0.8056，拟合效果次之；威布尔分布拟合度在0.1997～0.8991之间，总体波动较大，平均的拟合度为0.616；正态分布拟合范围为0.2585～0.6671，平均拟合度为0.6252；指数分布拟合度范围是0.0365～0.4077，平均拟合度是0.2317，拟合效果最差。%Signalized intersection is an important node interrupted traffic flow, so, accurate description of the vehicle arrival law is an important factor affecting the intersection signal control design. The arrival vehicle at a signalized intersection is random and diverse, and obeys certain statistical regularity. In this paper, the arrival time interval of the traffic flow was statistically analyzed and fitted. The result showed that there was a coupling relation between the arrival traffic rule of signal intersection and square of its variation coefficient, the conclusions were as the following: the fitting of log normal distribution ranged from 0.8874 to 0.9904, the average fitness was up to 0.9489, having the best fitting effect; Gamma distribution fitting range was 0.5352 to 0.9449, 0.8056 was the average degree fitting, the fitting effect followed; the fitting of Weibull distribution was between 0.1997 and 0.8991, the average fitness was 0.616; The normal distribution fitting range was 0.2585 to 0.6671, and the average fitness was 0.6252;the exponential distribution fitting ranged from 0.0365 to 0.4077, the average fitting degree was 0.2317 and the fitting effect was the worst.