Objective To evaluate the factors affecting the efficacy of extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy (ESWL) and establish a model for predicting the success rate of a single ESWL session in the treatment of single renal calculus.Methods Between January 2008 and February 2010,325 patients underwent ESWL monotherapy and were followed up for at most 3 months.The correlations between the outcome of a single ESWL session and the patients' age,gender,body mass index (BMI),disease duration,pretreatment renal colic,hematuria,urinary irritation symptoms,stone location,stone laterality,stone length and stone width were analyzed.The statistically significant factors identifies were further analyzed by multivariate logistic regression,and the predictive model was established.Results The stone-free rate of ESWL was 76.9%.Univariate analysis found that the patients' age,stone laterality,stone location,disease duration,pretreatment hematuria,stone length and width all significantly affected the outcome of the treatment.Logistic regression analysis indicated the factors including disease duration,pretreatment hematuria,stone length and stone width determined the success rate of the treatment.Hosmer and Lemeshow Test showed a good fitting of the predictive model (X2=18.144,df=8,P=0.168) with an overall accuracy of 87.4%.Conclusions Disease duration,pretreatment hematuria,stone length and width are independent factors affecting the outcome of a single ESWL session for single renal calculus.%目的 探讨体外冲击波碎石(ESWL)治疗肾结石疗效的影响因素,并建立预测模型.方法 2008年1月～2010年2月接受 ESWL治疗的肾结石患者325例,最长随访3个月,用x2检验或t检验进行单因素分析患者年龄、性别、体重指数、病程时间、治疗前肾绞痛、血尿、尿路刺激症状、结石位置、惠侧、结石长径、宽径等因素与疗效的关系,筛选出有统计学意义的因素后,再利用Logistic逐步回归多因素分析并建立预测模型.结果 ESWL治疗肾结石成功率76.9％(250/325).单因素分析发现年龄、结石患侧、结石位置、病程时间、治疗前血尿、结石长、宽径对疗效均有影响.Logistic回归分析则显示病程时间、治疗前血尿、结石长、宽径决定治疗的成功率.预测模型拟合优度好(x2=18.144,df=8,P=0.168),总体准确率为87.4％.结论 病程时间、治疗前血尿、结石长、短径是ESWL单次治疗单发肾结石成功率的独立影响因素.
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