农产品供应不确定下的提前采购决策

摘要

In view of the supply uncertainty problem caused by farmers default deliberately and the agro-meteorological disasters in the “company & farmers” mode of the farming supply chain, we adopt the mean-variance method to establish sourcing decisions model under the risk preference. We consider the balance of purchase cost, farmers relationship building cost, product and service costs, shortage cost and inventory cost, while the farmer choice and purchase quantities are decided simultaneously. A number of different size numerical study and analysis show that:the model reflect the effects of meteorological disas-ters and farmers default deliberately on farmer choice and purchase quantity, and the algorithm can solve the problems in practice. Under different risk preference, the probability and intensity of farmers default deliberately all have influence on farmer choice and purchase quantity, but the influence degree is differ-ent. With the increase of meteorological disasters probability, meteorological disasters intensity, farmers default deliberately probability and intensity, the purchase quantities tended to increase.%针对“公司+农户”模式订单农业供应链中农户故意违约和农业气象灾害导致的供应不确定问题，采用均值—方差方法建立了风险偏好下的农产品提前采购决策模型。考虑了采购成本、农户关系建立成本、生产服务成本、缺货成本和库存成本之间的平衡，同时对农户的选择和签约量进行决策。多个不同规模的算例测试和分析表明：所建立的模型较好反映了气象灾害和农户故意违约对农户选择和签约量的影响，设计的算法能用于实际问题的求解；在不同的风险偏好下，农户的故意违约概率、违约强度和生产能力对农户选择和签约量都有不同程度的影响；在风险偏好下，随着气象灾害发生概率、气象灾害强度、农户故意违约概率和农户违约强度的增加，签约量呈增大趋势。