基于中国健康和营养调查数据( CHNS)，以我国新农合全民覆盖为背景，利用完全外生性样本，实证分析了新农合对农村老人灾难性医疗支出的影响。研究结果表明，新农合政策实施以来，我国农村老人灾难性医疗支出发生率没有明显变化，根据重新界定，大致在1%左右；新农合对降低农村老人灾难性医疗支出无显著影响，其发生率主要取决于家庭人均收入水平及自身的健康状况。从对传导机制的分析来看，新农合显著提高了农村老人的就医主动性，从而可能增加了农村老人的医疗服务支出，导致新农合政策对缓解农村老人大病医疗可负担性的作用不显著。%Using China Health and Nutrition Survey data ( CHNS) and exogenous samples, the NRCMS’ impact on catastrophic health expenditures of the rural elderly is analyzed on the context of universal cov-erage of NRCMS. The results show that the incidence of catastrophic health expenditure is about 1% ac-cording to new definition and it did not change significantly since the implementation of NRCMS. The NRCMS had no significant effect on reducing out of pocket medical expenses for the rural elderly and the impact of catastrophic medical expenses of rural elderly depends mainly on their household income and their own health condition. It can be found from the analysis of the transmission mechanism that the im-plementation of the NRCMS significantly improved the medical positivity of the elderly, thus may increase the medical care spending of rural elderly. And NRCMS did not reduce the risk of catastrophic disease or ease the medical burden of rural residents.
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